Williston officials are expressing disappointment over the latest population estimates released last week by the U.S. Census Bureau.
The report shows Williston gaining just 211 residents between July 1, 2006 and July 1, 2007, for a total population of 12,393.
City Commissioner Brad Bekkedahl isn’t buying it.
“If I had to guess, we should have seen growth numbers between 1,000 and 2,000 people,” he said. Instead, the estimate pegs Williston’s population at 219 people less than the last official census in 2000, which was 12,512.
Bekkedahl said sales and use tax collections, construction, and job availability all point to a bigger population increase.
“Receipts for cable television service are up 30 percent from budget projections,” he said. “That’s more users in the system.”
Bekkedahl and Economic Development Director Tom Rolfstad both said they don’t understand why the estimates are made at all if they can’t accurately reflect what’s happening.
“We have employment numbers that show pretty substantial growth through this period,” Rolfstad said.
Richard Rathge, director of North Dakota’s Census Data Center said Williston leaders should be heartened by the projections.
“The estimates are excellent at actually showing the trend,” Rathge said, and that trend shows growth.
Williston has gained nearly 300 people since 2005, when the population hit a 10-year low of 12,102.
Rathge agreed, however, that the estimating process might not do justice to a population experiencing “dynamic” changes.
“It’s a unique situation,” he said. “What’s causing the growth is the dynamic reaction to demand for energy resources.”
Tax returns, one of the key indicators used to establish the estimate, may not account for people who worked in the area temporarily, for instance.
Despite the limitations of the process, Rathge said, “It’s the best measure that we have.”
And Rathge added, “The latest estimate is a 2007 number so you’re already a year behind.”
Rolfstad said the city challenged census figures in the mid 1980s, conducting a special census.
The city is unlikely to take that step this time, he said. With the next decennial census set to take place in 2010, “It seems pretty futile.”
In the future, Rathge said, he believes city officials will be better pleased with the estimates that come out between the 10-year federal counts.
“In today’s society, only having data every 10 years is not so helpful,” he said.
That’s why a new count, called the American Community Survey, has been conducted annually since 2006 in cities under 20,000 people. It takes five years of sampling before the numbers are considered statistically accurate.
“By 2010 we’ll have very accurate data for Williston,” he said, and for every year following.
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